Check small-order shipping before your next offer.
Sample: 20 consecutive physical-product orders, September 11–30, 2026.
Period context: September 1–30, 2026 · USD · labor valued at $18/hour.
What the inputs show
Six orders are below zero after the stated allocation, including refunded and canceled entries. This is a finding about this sample.
SIM-015 is the first order to inspect. Its $10 net revenue leaves −$3.90 after fees, direct costs, labor and allocated Ads. Postage alone is $5.50. Verify its shipping and cost evidence before repeating the offer.
| Net fees | $68.10 |
| Materials / production | $150.90 |
| Packaging / postage | $18.20 / $88.90 |
| 452 minutes of direct labor | $135.60 |
| Contribution before Etsy Ads | $172.30 |
| Allocated Etsy Ads | $36.10 |
Two separate sensitivities
| Single change from base | Contribution |
|---|---|
| Labor rate $18 → $24/hour | $91.00 |
| Period Etsy Ads $300 → $240 | $143.42 |
Both hold orders, revenue, refunds and the whole-shop denominator fixed. The ad case is cost arithmetic, not a recommendation or sales forecast. Changing advertising can change orders.
One action to agree on the call
Check postage and packing costs for the next five small sticker orders. Compare one available shipping or basket-size option in the workbook using actual fee inputs. Record contribution per order and any change in conversion; choose a test date and observation window before changing the offer.
Questions still to resolve
In a real review: which labor minutes are estimated, whether refunds and credits are final, and whether shipping costs are evidenced. All 20 fictional rows are complete; no real records were checked.
Method & limits
Sample ad allocation = $300 period Etsy Ads × $722 sample gross booked revenue ÷ $6,000 same-period whole-shop gross = $36.10. Gross includes discounted item revenue and shipping charged, before refunds and excluding pass-through tax. This is cost allocation, not ad attribution. Offsite Ads, if charged, belong in net fees. The $79 service fee is outside this order model. Fixed overhead, income tax and cash-deposit timing are excluded; the sample cannot establish whole-month or final business net profit.